Tariffs, Tariffs, Tariffs

    
        The United States once again will have Donald Trump as its President.  This time, he will have even fewer legal guardrails, fewer inhibitions, and a far more pliable Congress to do his bidding.  This means we, as a country, need to take his policy proposals from the campaign trail and Project2025 even more seriously than usual.  Unfortunately, lying is just part of Trump’s playbook, but one move he’s extremely likely to make is the imposition of sweeping tariffs. It’s no new claim that Donald Trump may not always know what he's talking about.  From his famously bungled answer on the nuclear triad in 2015 to his bizarre ramblings on I.V.F., Trump has shown very little openness to new information, often claiming “no one knew” something that everyone else does know.  Today, I want to focus on the reader: Trump’s current “magic bullet” for economic success is imposing tariffs, yet I have yet to see a reporter competently follow up on this issue.  I’m going to break down what a tariff is, how it’s imposed, and what will likely happen if he does impose them in 2025.    
        Article I of the U.S. Constitution grants Congress the power “to lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts, and excises…”  However, as with many other powers, for various legitimate reasons, Congress has delegated some of this authority to the President through statute.  There are several statutory basis under which a President Trump could impose his proposed 30% across-the-board tariffs, most of which are administered by some department within the Executive Branch.  This would not serve as a significant barrier for him or the alarming candidates who will likely head these departments.  If Donald Trump is elected President, these tariffs will very likely be imposed at the extreme levels he is suggesting.
        What is a tariff?  Simply put, it’s a tax.  Each year, the U.S. imports over $3 trillion worth of goods.  The largest share comes from China ($551 billion), followed closely by Canada ($438 billion) and Mexico ($421 billion), with Japan ($137 billion) further behind.  Remember, these goods aren’t sent by foreign governments; they’re products of companies operating within a global economy.  When Ford builds a car in Michigan and a consumer buys that car in Germany, the process does not involve government intermediaries — it's entirely driven by private enterprise, with governments regulating, protecting, and taxing the system as a whole.  A tariff is a tax imposed on goods as they enter a country.  Each year, billions of tons of material pass through U.S. ports, such as the Port of Los Angeles, where they are weighed, counted, and cross-referenced with records before being distributed domestically.  A tariff would be an additional tax paid by the importer, shipping company, or exporting business, not the government of the product's country of origin.
        It’s possible Trump is simply misrepresenting his understanding of tariffs for political gain.  Telling a crowd he’s going to “punish China” by forcing them to give us billions sounds appealing.  But, as we’ve discussed, that’s not what happens.  Instead, businesses — both foreign and domestic — incur greater costs to operate in the U.S..  And when that happens, will companies cut executive bonuses, decrease stock dividends, or reduce unnecessary expenses?  No. A company’s primary goal is to maximize returns for shareholders, not to keep prices low.  Increased costs will result in companies passing expenses down the supply chain until they ultimately reach the consumer.  This is why the Harris Campaign calls Trump’s tariffs a “$4,000 tax on the middle class.”  Few products are made entirely in one country, making tariffs a poor tool for driving economic prosperity in any direction.
        Why is this even being considered?  While I don’t want to delve too deeply into Trump’s mindset, I see two possibilities.  The first is that it’s simply a lie.  About a third of voters consider Trump “honest,” though many don’t mind if he lies as long as it benefits them.  Everyone knows he lies.  Like his positions on abortion, his affairs, his taxes, and his healthcare plan, this tariff policy could just be another empty promise to get elected.  The second, and more likely explanation, is that he simply doesn’t understand what a tariff is and doesn’t care to.  Early in Trump’s presidency, Stephen Colbert observed that Trump seemed more interested in the pageantry of the office than its responsibilities, once joking, “why are you telling me two things? I don’t need two things. Just tell me one thing.”  This attitude seems to apply to his economic policies too, which have global implications and affect millions of Americans.  It’s just “go with it” because it gets a crowd cheering.
        Donald Trump’s tariff policy is a microcosm of why he is fundamentally unfit to be President of the United States.  This is a serious job with lasting, global ripple effects.  Trump’s primary concern is being admired by others, a trait more fitting for a celebrity than a political leader.  What must have attracted him to tariffs is the idea that he can sign a piece of paper, and no one can stop him.  He likes that.   It’s unilateral, quick, powerful, and gives him just enough information to make sweeping claims about China and the U.S. economy.  Even though this isn’t how the complex system works, it will be enough for him and enough for his voters.  As they pay more at the store, at the pump, and lose sight of economic relief, Trump will simply point the blame elsewhere.  This tariff policy is just one of many, many troubling policy proposals that accompany Donald Trump’s reelection.


   #FitzFile

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