The Five Groups of Trump
With the Iowa caucuses just a few days away, there has been a uptick in voter analysis. Along with this is a renewal in the question “how could anyone vote for Donald Trump?” While that has always been a question since 2016, there are several fairly extreme examples which continue to press this question, not the least of which was his latest claim that he should be immune from killing political rivals as President. But given there will be around 150 million people voting in the election, it is useful to divide these groups into broad categories to understand how they view certain issues. Over the past few months, I have broken Trump voters into 5 general categories. While these can overlap somewhat, they are important distinctions to use when deciding on a persuasive methodology.
True Believers. This is the group of ride-or-die (literally) Trump voters. They have the red hat, travel to attend his rallies, and believe he may have just been sent by God to save their idea of America. These are the type of voter that is angry about the status quo and has nowhere else to turn to, at least in their mind. Obviously, these would be the least likely to be convinced of voting any other way. They believe everything he tells them, every investigation and accusation is fake news, and violence is a legitimate political tool to be used. But perhaps the best way to convince them otherwise is to gently and compassionately introduce evidence that Trump does not care about them, only himself, and that he has become a part of the “establishment” they so detest. This group makes up perhaps 30% of the Republican voting base.
Single-Issue Voters. This is a group that particularly focuses on one issue when choosing who to vote for. Whether it is guns, abortion, taxes, trans kids, military strength, regulations, these voters mostly tune everything else out. The single-issue voter is one of passion or one who is secure in their life. They either are able to ignore other issues for their own belief or have the luxury to ignore them and focus on a specific subject. Taxes is a very good example of this. Living in the Bay Area, I am exposed to people all the time who really do not care about any of the confusion or chaos created by Trump, they only want their paycheck to have a few extra bucks. Which is a perfectly legitimate position to take, though it is one I do not agree with. There are many of those voters on the left as well, Hamas’ attack of Israel and the following military response will most likely shape many people’s vote. Convincing this group will take diligent debate and work by Democrats because the issue is the only thing that matters, but it also leads to an opening. Lower taxes for example, is usually about two things: economic prosperity and personal finances. There are many ways to help with both of those things without recklessly lowering taxes. This group makes up perhaps 10% of the Republican voting base.
Social Conservatives. Behind the True Believers, this group is the most vocal and most determined of the Trump supporters. Most likely evangelical Christians, this group makes up a large part of the Republican base and the total voting population in general. While they do not have as much of a dedication to Trump as the True Believers, they do tend to rationalize cruel actions more than normal. They tend to believe Democratic, social, and societal change to be detrimental to the country and look backwards to when life fit into neat little boxes where each group had their place and stayed there. They are highly motivated by issues like gay marriage, abortion, and religious freedom, while being highly reactive to the current hysteria over trans-people. This is a particularly notable group because every other election cycle they are wound up by some issue. This group is actually more difficult to convince than the others covered so far because there is a religious conviction to their positions. But these positions usually stem from a misapprehension of the issue they are railing against. A good example is gay marriage, in the 2000 and 2004 elections their approval was around 20%, now they generally approve of the issue over 70%. This is simply because the issue was pushed into the spotlight, many people came out, TV shows were more focused on the humanity of gay people than over the top stereotypes, and the average American simply got used to them. This is the way to convince this group, humanize those who would suffer from their knee-jerk reactions to social issues, which usually lead people to empathize. This group makes up perhaps 25% of the Republican voting base.
Anything but Democrats. This group usually takes two forms, one is low-information voters, and the other is bubble voters. Often voters make their choice of part affiliation and never change, due to their upbringing, socioeconomic status, or some other generalized fact that persists throughout their life. Often, they vote for a party because they tend to agree with their positions, and they know the other side does not fit with those beliefs, so they simply look for the candidate with an “R” next to their name and fill in the ballot. I know I have done that when I was unfamiliar with some elected positions in my younger years. But this is fundamentally tied to their choice to not engage in politics, which could be for any number of reasons. The other subgroup is the bubble voters. These voters are similar to the Social Conservatives because they are caught in a web of misinformed beliefs. Unfortunately, this is much more common today because of the internet allowing voters to get caught in right or leftwing bubbles which lead to wildly misinformed voters. This group has become convinced Democrats are pedophiles, they are engaged in opening the boarder to anyone, and they are secretly going after Donald Trump with fake legal cases, all of which are false. Whether out of habit or a misguided belief the other side is evil, these voters simply look for anything other than a Democrat and check that box, sometimes even voting for the Libertarian, Green, or Third-Way parties. The best way to convince this group is to belay their fears through calm and diligent discussion. Helping a person understand some of their beliefs are false tends to make them question the premise of the belief itself. Focusing on the commonality of wanting what is best for the country, and slowly branching out to explore the groups which support that belief, tend to lead the average voter to the Democratic Party. This group makes up perhaps 20% of the Republican voting base.
Lastly, Old Fashion Republicans. This is the group which has truly faded into the background of the country, and not necessarily because they are a shrinking group. These are the Regan, Bush, and McCain voters of old. Lower taxes, military hawks, smaller government, and less regulation believers. They find Donald Trump distasteful, and look at Nikki Haley with a glimmer of hope. This group continues to firmly believe in the United States as a global superpower, but also wants to take international action to support that position, rather than sit back and demand tribute. This was the group that wrote the 2012 Republican “autopsy” after Obama won over Romney. In that document, they recognized their need to evolve on social issues because the country had reached a new standard of tolerance and compassion while maintaining their military and economic policies. This position was blown up in 2016. This is going to be the voting base of Haley and some of DeSantis in Iowa and moving forward, but it will only ever reach a fraction of the 50% needed to win. This group makes up perhaps 15% of the Republican voting base.
With each of these groups, it becomes clear just how fractured the Republican Party really is. Democrats have always been this way; a popular mantra for decades has been “Democrats in disarray”. For conservatives, they don’t quite know how to handle the disruptive forces which now have a firm grasp on the entire voting bloc. The unending chaos in the House of Representatives and the ousting of the Speaker for the first time in our history is a perfect example of this. But this disarray has presented an opening on the Democratic side. There is already a strong, if small, anti-Trump voter who will either stay home or vote for Biden. But what makes them most valuable is the likely conversations they have with their fellow Republicans. Trump has a bad habit of playing to his base above all else, because they are the ones who make up the crowds at his rallies, giving him the cheers he is so desperate for. But it also leads to making very poor political decisions. He continuously brags about overturning Roe v. Wade, has recommitted to overturning the Affordable Care Act, continues to claim the 2020 election was stolen, has recommitted to a “Muslim ban”, and claims a President has complete immunity from the law. All these positions reflected his lowest approval ratings throughout his presidency, yet he is doubling down on every one. This leads to those who do not want him to be reelected to have sufficient argumentative points to convince someone to change their vote, especially anti-Trump voters. Democracy is about persuasion and convincing the population one side has a better set of ideas and has earned their vote. We are all rational human beings and can be convinced, no matter how far we fall. As we enter an election year, it is once again time for us to perform our civic duty, have conversations with our fellow Americans, and get out the vote.
True Believers. This is the group of ride-or-die (literally) Trump voters. They have the red hat, travel to attend his rallies, and believe he may have just been sent by God to save their idea of America. These are the type of voter that is angry about the status quo and has nowhere else to turn to, at least in their mind. Obviously, these would be the least likely to be convinced of voting any other way. They believe everything he tells them, every investigation and accusation is fake news, and violence is a legitimate political tool to be used. But perhaps the best way to convince them otherwise is to gently and compassionately introduce evidence that Trump does not care about them, only himself, and that he has become a part of the “establishment” they so detest. This group makes up perhaps 30% of the Republican voting base.
Single-Issue Voters. This is a group that particularly focuses on one issue when choosing who to vote for. Whether it is guns, abortion, taxes, trans kids, military strength, regulations, these voters mostly tune everything else out. The single-issue voter is one of passion or one who is secure in their life. They either are able to ignore other issues for their own belief or have the luxury to ignore them and focus on a specific subject. Taxes is a very good example of this. Living in the Bay Area, I am exposed to people all the time who really do not care about any of the confusion or chaos created by Trump, they only want their paycheck to have a few extra bucks. Which is a perfectly legitimate position to take, though it is one I do not agree with. There are many of those voters on the left as well, Hamas’ attack of Israel and the following military response will most likely shape many people’s vote. Convincing this group will take diligent debate and work by Democrats because the issue is the only thing that matters, but it also leads to an opening. Lower taxes for example, is usually about two things: economic prosperity and personal finances. There are many ways to help with both of those things without recklessly lowering taxes. This group makes up perhaps 10% of the Republican voting base.
Social Conservatives. Behind the True Believers, this group is the most vocal and most determined of the Trump supporters. Most likely evangelical Christians, this group makes up a large part of the Republican base and the total voting population in general. While they do not have as much of a dedication to Trump as the True Believers, they do tend to rationalize cruel actions more than normal. They tend to believe Democratic, social, and societal change to be detrimental to the country and look backwards to when life fit into neat little boxes where each group had their place and stayed there. They are highly motivated by issues like gay marriage, abortion, and religious freedom, while being highly reactive to the current hysteria over trans-people. This is a particularly notable group because every other election cycle they are wound up by some issue. This group is actually more difficult to convince than the others covered so far because there is a religious conviction to their positions. But these positions usually stem from a misapprehension of the issue they are railing against. A good example is gay marriage, in the 2000 and 2004 elections their approval was around 20%, now they generally approve of the issue over 70%. This is simply because the issue was pushed into the spotlight, many people came out, TV shows were more focused on the humanity of gay people than over the top stereotypes, and the average American simply got used to them. This is the way to convince this group, humanize those who would suffer from their knee-jerk reactions to social issues, which usually lead people to empathize. This group makes up perhaps 25% of the Republican voting base.
Anything but Democrats. This group usually takes two forms, one is low-information voters, and the other is bubble voters. Often voters make their choice of part affiliation and never change, due to their upbringing, socioeconomic status, or some other generalized fact that persists throughout their life. Often, they vote for a party because they tend to agree with their positions, and they know the other side does not fit with those beliefs, so they simply look for the candidate with an “R” next to their name and fill in the ballot. I know I have done that when I was unfamiliar with some elected positions in my younger years. But this is fundamentally tied to their choice to not engage in politics, which could be for any number of reasons. The other subgroup is the bubble voters. These voters are similar to the Social Conservatives because they are caught in a web of misinformed beliefs. Unfortunately, this is much more common today because of the internet allowing voters to get caught in right or leftwing bubbles which lead to wildly misinformed voters. This group has become convinced Democrats are pedophiles, they are engaged in opening the boarder to anyone, and they are secretly going after Donald Trump with fake legal cases, all of which are false. Whether out of habit or a misguided belief the other side is evil, these voters simply look for anything other than a Democrat and check that box, sometimes even voting for the Libertarian, Green, or Third-Way parties. The best way to convince this group is to belay their fears through calm and diligent discussion. Helping a person understand some of their beliefs are false tends to make them question the premise of the belief itself. Focusing on the commonality of wanting what is best for the country, and slowly branching out to explore the groups which support that belief, tend to lead the average voter to the Democratic Party. This group makes up perhaps 20% of the Republican voting base.
Lastly, Old Fashion Republicans. This is the group which has truly faded into the background of the country, and not necessarily because they are a shrinking group. These are the Regan, Bush, and McCain voters of old. Lower taxes, military hawks, smaller government, and less regulation believers. They find Donald Trump distasteful, and look at Nikki Haley with a glimmer of hope. This group continues to firmly believe in the United States as a global superpower, but also wants to take international action to support that position, rather than sit back and demand tribute. This was the group that wrote the 2012 Republican “autopsy” after Obama won over Romney. In that document, they recognized their need to evolve on social issues because the country had reached a new standard of tolerance and compassion while maintaining their military and economic policies. This position was blown up in 2016. This is going to be the voting base of Haley and some of DeSantis in Iowa and moving forward, but it will only ever reach a fraction of the 50% needed to win. This group makes up perhaps 15% of the Republican voting base.
With each of these groups, it becomes clear just how fractured the Republican Party really is. Democrats have always been this way; a popular mantra for decades has been “Democrats in disarray”. For conservatives, they don’t quite know how to handle the disruptive forces which now have a firm grasp on the entire voting bloc. The unending chaos in the House of Representatives and the ousting of the Speaker for the first time in our history is a perfect example of this. But this disarray has presented an opening on the Democratic side. There is already a strong, if small, anti-Trump voter who will either stay home or vote for Biden. But what makes them most valuable is the likely conversations they have with their fellow Republicans. Trump has a bad habit of playing to his base above all else, because they are the ones who make up the crowds at his rallies, giving him the cheers he is so desperate for. But it also leads to making very poor political decisions. He continuously brags about overturning Roe v. Wade, has recommitted to overturning the Affordable Care Act, continues to claim the 2020 election was stolen, has recommitted to a “Muslim ban”, and claims a President has complete immunity from the law. All these positions reflected his lowest approval ratings throughout his presidency, yet he is doubling down on every one. This leads to those who do not want him to be reelected to have sufficient argumentative points to convince someone to change their vote, especially anti-Trump voters. Democracy is about persuasion and convincing the population one side has a better set of ideas and has earned their vote. We are all rational human beings and can be convinced, no matter how far we fall. As we enter an election year, it is once again time for us to perform our civic duty, have conversations with our fellow Americans, and get out the vote.
#FitzFile
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