About Last Night...

        One fitful sleep later, I wanted to talk about the debate last night.  I am not going to pretend that was a good performance from President Biden.  It wasn’t.  He was halting, quiet, mixed up his words and stories, and his life-long stutter came back in painful ways.  While Trump had his usual mixed bag of lies and outrageous statements, it was Biden’s weakness that will be the main story.  But I wanted to separate my thinking into two buckets.  The first is what President Biden needed to do in this debate, and the second is what overall effect this has on the race.

        I try to remind my politically interested friends in conversation that the biggest disparity in voters is not conservative versus liberal, it is informed voters versus uninformed voters.  I have read over and over in polls and focus groups that the average voter does not know what Biden has done as President.  This actually presents a very clear and strong opening to convince voters, simply informing them of the facts.  But when there is a gap in knowledge with the average person, it does not typically stay empty.  What has filled this gap has been one message: Joe Biden is too old.  Biden is an old school politician in a new school era almost tailor made for someone like Donald Trump.  Driven by social media, it is hyper focused on short clips, one-liners, and perhaps most of all, optics.  This left Biden with two opponents last night, Donald Trump and the caricature of himself.  I had confidence he could beat those two opponents, like he had every other time.  A main talking point on the right for the last two weeks has been that Biden must be on drugs because of how strong he has been over and over in debates and speeches.  But in failing to deliver, he also exacerbated his biggest weakness in the minds of swing voters.  The President had one job at last night’s debate, to show the country he is not suffering from age in any meaningful way.  He failed. 

        What effect will this have on the race?  It is difficult to say so soon after this performance.  But I still firmly believe that the weakness demonstrated last night is not the main concern in swing voter’s minds.  No voter in the United States is under the impression that Biden was young and spry before last night.  But those concerned took it a step further by questioning whether or not he was too old to do the job of President.  A fair and important question for the most powerful position on the planet.  Unfortunately, this will now be a perfectly valid data point for those with that concern.  However, there is still an opportunity to inform voters of the work Biden has done as President which will lessen the impact of his debate performance.  I do not think this will result in people switching from Biden to Trump.  More likely it will be that many voters will not vote.         

        This debate was earlier than any we have had in decades with two potential upsides.  The first is there are four months until the election, that is an eternity in political time.  It is enough time for the Biden campaign to shake it off, get out on the stump and reframe the race as one of experience and commitment to American values versus chaos and vengeance.   The other, more concerning upside is there is time for Joe Biden to drop out of the race and another democrat to pick up steam.  I don’t think that is going to happen and if it did, I don’t think it’s a good idea.  I think Biden feels he has a moral duty to defeat Trump again, he is the only one who has done it, and he is currently in the best position to do so.  Biden doesn’t need to introduce himself, he doesn’t need to show the country who he is, doesn’t need to overcome the initial introduction hurdle.  He is an old friend to the American public, a massive advantage over every other democrat even remotely considered viable. 

        Joe Biden did not help his chances last night for reelection.  But his weaknesses still pale in comparison to Donald Trump’s, who holds genuinely unpopular positions.  Whether it's over immigration, tariff policy, abortion, or January 6th, his weaknesses are far more concrete than Joe Biden’s.  A healthy majority of Americans also hold a broader view on the impact of Trump’s potential reelection on the courts and other institutional pillars we rely on.  Voters do not like Trump because they do not like Trump.  Voters do not like Biden because they don’t know what he has done.  There is a massive opportunity to seize on if only the Biden administration can refocus its message and land a few more hits.  But Joe Biden must also look in the mirror and ask himself if this is the best way forward when the country is facing such a threat.  As of today, the decision lies entirely in the President’s hands.

#FitzFile