Fitz File

          The United States, and more generally the developed world, has achieved massive success in the past 100 years. The strength of the capitalistic market, government action, international cooperation, and individual determination has led to stability and massive prosperity for more human beings than any time in history. Overall, this is a good thing. This leads to greater lifespans, access to education, luxuries, art, cultural development, and a speeding of technological achievement in areas other than war (memes mostly). But as with every development, it also brings some drawbacks for society. In this instance, it is the level of prosperity itself that is insulating groups so much it allows for divisive actions that would otherwise be problematic. It is primarily on display in a few areas of society: healthcare, political extremism, and broader social cooperation.           The most immediately dangerous effect of...

On July 21st, 2024, President Joe Biden made the difficult choice to not seek reelection for the office of the Presidency.  Before we dive into politics, his potential successor, and how this will affect the race, I wanted to take a moment to really consider this decision.  There have been few Presidents who have decided to not seek reelection.  And while this wasn’t exactly his choice, I do not think he would have made it if he did not think it was for the betterment of the nation.  So I wanted to talk about what Joe Biden did, what he has done as President, and what is to come next.  All of which must be preceded by heartfelt thanks for this great man and President. Joe Biden may not be the greatest candidate, but he was what America needed in January of 2021.  The COVID-19 pandemic was still raging across the country, with more than 3000 Americans dying per day .  This chaos was compounded by the Republican efforts to disrupt and overturn the 2020 ...

          One fitful sleep later, I wanted to talk about the debate last night.  I am not going to pretend that was a good performance from President Biden.  It wasn’t.  He was halting, quiet, mixed up his words and stories, and his life-long stutter came back in painful ways.  While Trump had his usual mixed bag of lies and outrageous statements, it was Biden’s weakness that will be the main story.  But I wanted to separate my thinking into two buckets.  The first is what President Biden needed to do in this debate, and the second is what overall effect this has on the race.           I try to remind my politically interested friends in conversation that the biggest disparity in voters is not conservative versus liberal, it is informed voters versus uninformed voters.  I have read over and over in polls and focus groups that the average voter does not know what Biden has done as President....

         With the two-year anniversary of the infamous Dobbs decision on June 24, I wanted to revisit just how impactful it was. Because of “trigger laws” in multiple states, the second the decision was announced, women began to suffer. Since then, the steady barrage of horror stories has galvanized the public to support the right to choose even further than it already was two years ago.   A similar alarm that rose from this decision came not from Justice Alito’s majority opinion, but Justice Thomas’ concurrence.  His words led all who read them to come to the horrifying conclusion that this new conservative supermajority on the court, in combination with the broader Trump movement, meant every single piece of societal progress was now on the table.         There is a principle in the law called stare decisis , a Latin phrase literally meaning “to stand by things decided.”   In the legal field, we us...

            There is a grim reality for certain areas of our political discourse. While it isn’t exactly apathy, it does result in the same thing: a collective shrug. Were you aware there were four mass shootings yesterday (June 9th)? I wasn’t. Twenty one people were injured. Families shattered, lives broken, communities traumatized. And almost nothing happens. While there are many factors that contribute to this attitude, Republican talking points are a significant part in American inaction. It is easy to see because it is seen over and over and over again: “This is not the time”, “it won’t end gun violence”, “second amendment”, “they’re coming to take your guns”, “its videogames”, “its mental health”. While this kind of rhetoric is toxically effective, it is thankfully limited to only a few issues. However, the hipper-conservative Republican Party is currently trying to spread it to their biggest liability: women’s rights.  ...

          The 2016 election changed Democrat’s attitude when it comes to predicting and confidence.  While we have always been the party of nervous nerds who want to think of clever ways to solve problems for the betterment of the country, the defeat of Hilary Clinton has scarred us.  This has led to underplaying victories and hedging our bets in ways that might be detrimental to voter turnout, though every election since 2016 has proven this wrong.  But with the South Carolina primary wrapped up, this trauma also seems to be influencing how we talk about the strengths and weaknesses of Donald Trump.            I am not sure why I have not seen more commentators highlighting just how weak Trump is in the Republican party.  There have been four competitions so far for the GOP, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and now South Carolina.  Other than Iowa, I have not seen anyone seriously think Trump would n...

          With the Iowa caucuses just a few days away, there has been a uptick in voter analysis. Along with this is a renewal in the question “how could anyone vote for Donald Trump?” While that has always been a question since 2016, there are several fairly extreme examples which continue to press this question, not the least of which was his latest claim that he should be immune from killing political rivals as President. But given there will be around 150 million people voting in the election, it is useful to divide these groups into broad categories to understand how they view certain issues. Over the past few months, I have broken Trump voters into 5 general categories. While these can overlap somewhat, they are important distinctions to use when deciding on a persuasive methodology.           True Believers. This is the group of ride-or-die (literally) Trump voters. They have the red hat, travel to attend his ra...